1. Who do I think will win it? Based on riding percentage alone, I think it will be Silvano Alves or Valdiron de Oliveira. I'm not saying I want these guys to win. I don't. Frankly, I'm tired of having the whole "Brazilian domination" thing hammered on my head every time I watch the PBR. And it really has nothing to do with Brazilians. It could be "New York City domination" or "Top Chef domination" or "Gumby domination" and I would be equally tired of hearing it. And it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that I think Alves and Valdiron take too long in the chute. But I think it's likely that one of them will win it. However both of these riders tend to avoid picking the hardest bulls in short rounds and here they don't have a choice. That could have an impact.
2. That said, I really thought Austin Meier was going to be the guy this time. Then he drew Big Tex as his first bull, and if he gets by him, he's got Shepherd Hills Trapper and Bushwacker. Oh well. But he could still do it, and I hope that he will. Two other guys I would like to see come to the fore in this event are Dustin Elliott and Jordan Hupp.
3. I wondered last year, and I wonder again this year, if buckoff percentages are a factor in Cody Lambert's bracket picks. Because if one bull bucks off 80% of his riders and he is in the same round as one that bucks off only 50% of them, it really doesn't matter what the average ride score is, the first bull is the one you don't want to be on.
4. (Bad) luck of the draw: Would you rather be Austin Meier getting on Big Tex (ridden 20% of the time) or Ryan McConnel getting on Kool N Sexy (64%) in Round Two? Or the second round rider getting on Maverick (50%) or the one getting on Kabookie (16%)? Right.
5. Just for fun, I figured out a prediction for a winner, based on the bulls' buckoff percentages only. That would be Sean Willingham. Not going to happen.
6. Improvement: No bull is being ridden twice. Valdiron de Oliveira won $250,000 last year for lasting a second or two longer on a bull that had just been out a few minutes earlier, a bull that scored several points less in Valdiron's ride than he did in Travis Briscoe's. That was probably one of the biggest strokes of luck - some would say unfairness - in bull riding history. Awarding $250,000 simply for staying on longer than the other guy was just kind of - I was going to say "stupid", but that's too negative, so I'll say "crazy" instead. I'm sure it seemed like a good idea at the time. These are the videos: Briscoe on Code Blue and de Oliveira on Code Blue
7. Prize money: Winner: $50,000. Second Place: $25,000. Each successful ride: $1,000. The winner gets an opportunity to earn $100,000 more for riding K93 Super Duty / Major Payne.
8. Will anyone take the bonus money by staying on K93? I'm saying no.
9. Big question: How many qualified rides will there be in the night? There are 46 pairings of riders versus short round caliber bulls. I'll say we're going to see 12 completed rides, maximum. Maybe fewer, given rider fatigue.
10. Just for the heck of it: High bull score of the night? 47. Shortest buckoff time of the night? Under one second. Number of 90 point rides? Two.
11. My bulls to watch: Crosswired, Pure Smoke, Trapper, Spitfire. Bring It, Black Pearl, Wild & Out, Smackdown. And of course the big guns: Bushwacker, Gangster, and K93. It's the bulls' night in Vegas, no mistake about that.
