Here's an eleven-point analysis of the prediction problem.
1. Bulls. Large animals bred to get ticked off when men climb on their backs.
2. Heads, horns, hooves, and ground. Velocity. The comparative frailty of even the fittest human body.
3. Scoring. It isn't gymnastics or diving. It isn't T-ball where you get a prize just for being on the team. No ride, no score.
4. Lengthy season. Injuries add up, people get tired, and the long haul is...long. Not everyone is cut out for it.
5. The mental game. Bull riding? What could possibly psych you out about that.
6. Odds. Only in baseball and bull riding is 50% considered really good.
7. Favorites. I know at least one rider who is perfect, and I'll bet on him every time. Stupid idea.
8. Hot streaks. Everyone loves them. Desire to be on a fast-sailing ship.
9. Denial. Willingness to believe that the ship will continue to sail fast even if it is obvious to everyone else that it is sinking.
10. Trust. If you hear it on TV, it must be true. I rarely fall prey to this one. If you believe everything commentators say about riders, your brain will turn into a yo-yo. Or sludge.
11. Luck. Always a tyrant.
That's the deal. I will own up to #7-9 as something I could control and don't. The rest is just the name of the game. I vow to make no more predictions until the next time I am overcome with certainty. I made one just the other day, but I'm not saying what it was.
